How to plan for CUSTOMER volume

Remember, 100% of your customers will have at one point been LEADS. Instead of trying to pull a ‘customer’ number out of thin air, model from it’s components.

Customers = Lead Volume * Lead Conversion * Time to Conversion

You should already have an estimate of LEAD VOLUME, what you need next is to estimate LEAD CONVERSION and TIME TO CONVERSION

How to estimate Lead Conversion

Think about it in the context of your Lead Volume

Notice the X-axis of Lead Volume is the same as Conversion. You can think of this as - for leads created on a given day, what is the expected conversion going to be?

In the above example - The reasoning could be something like the following:

“for the first 3 months, we’ll rely mainly on our existing network with a white-glove experience. We’ll be getting less than 1 lead a day on average, but will convert them very well, around 40%. As we exhaust our personal network and move into the marketplace at the end of year 1 (marked by 360 days), we expect to be converting a steady 10% of all Leads we receive”


Depending on where you are in your company’s lifecycle, this could be a daunting prospect. But it is
absolutely essential that you draw this line in the sand, otherwise it will be almost impossible to determine the health of your sales funnel later on.

Keep in mind - You are estimating the total conversion likelihood.

If you are struggling with this estimation, it may be a good idea to try to estimate TIME to CONVERSION first.

How to estimate Time to Conversion

TAKE TIME TO UNDERSTAND THIS. IF YOU COMPLETE THIS STEP, YOU ARE IN RARE COMPANY IN THE B2B WORLD.

Sure, maybe you’re going to convert 15% of all of your leads, but how long will it take to do that?

Step 1: Think to yourself - ‘What’s the longest possible amount of time it could possibly take to make it from being a lead to being a customer?’

THIS number (of days) will be the length of your X-Axis, and it will correspond to the maximum value (100%) of your Y-axis. In the example above, that number was 360 days. Here are a few ways of thinking about that number.

  • 360 days after becoming a lead, the sales funnel is 100% complete.
  • There is a 0% chance a lead becomes a customer in greater than 360 days
  • Given a lead becomes a customer, there is a 100% likelihood that they are won within 360 days.

Step 2: Break down the funnel in inflection points

Here is an example of the rest of the thought process that went into the above example

“For each lead that does eventually become a customer…”

  • “What % of leads will be converted on day 0?”
    • “about 25%” - mark that % on the Y-axis at 0
  • “HALF of them will be converted within how many days?”
    • “about 30” - mark 50% on the Y-axis at 30
  • 75% will be won within how many days?
    • “about 3 months” - mark 75% on the Y-axis at 90

From these points, the days between can be interpolated accordingly, and additional inflection points can be added to your hearts desire.

Choose your own numbers - but don’t forget to start at 0 days and to end at the max length of your sales funnel.

note: multiple lines may be necessary, each line representing a different period of time